Fraud on its way?

The Ould Daddah and Boulkheir campaigns are now best described as “in shock”: the numbers coming out since the polls closed are showing massive majorities for General Ould Abdel Aziz. In Nouadhibou, sixty-five precincts are showing the same results in favor of Ould Abdel Aziz. The question: how? The answer: fraud. Their reactions now will determine what is possible tomorrow and in the days afterward.

Possible outcomes, at this stage: (1) Ould Abdel Aziz wins in the first round, slightly but decisively; (2) a second round contest between Ould Abdel Aziz and Boulkheir, where Ould Abdel Aziz wins by a large and decisive victory, in excess of 15 or 20 percent; (3) repeat the second, with Ould Daddah or another candidate. In any case, all three scenarios are possible only by means of fraud and will continue, if not broaden, concerns surrounding Ould Abdel Aziz’s legitimacy.

Perhaps the ultimate evidence of potential fraud: sources in Nouakchott are saying that the results are being released by the Secretary General of the Interior Ministry, not the Interior Minister; the Interior Minister is “missing,” and believed to have been arrested on undisclosed (or non-existent) charges. All of this is pending confirmation, however.

General Ould Abdel Aziz has lead Mauritania in three substantial campaigns: The Good Coup (2005), the Rejected Coup (2008) and, now, the Constitutional Coup (2009).

Pre-election projections in Mauritania: Daddah, Aziz and Boulkheir on top

A poll done by the National Gendarmerie within the last 24-48 hours, projects the electoral map (though not Inichiri). Here is the list by region, with its voter population, based generally on data from 2007:

• Hodh al-Sharqi: (1) Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz; (2) Ahmed Ould Daddah; (3) Messaoud Boulkheir. Projected to be close. (South-east interior; +/- 70,000)
• Hodh al-Gharbi: (1/2) Close competition between Ould Daddah and Ould Abdel Aziz; (3) Hamadi Ould Saleh Ould Hannena and Boulkheir in close competition; (4/5) Ely Ould Mohamed Vall and Jamil Mansour. (South-west interior; +/- 61,200)
• Assaba: (1) Ould Daddah; (2) Ould Abdel Aziz; (3) tough competition between Boulkheir and Mansour. (South central interior; +/- 60,500)
• Brakna: (1) Ould Daddah; (2) Ould Abdel Aziz closely behind; (3) Boulkheir showing strongly. (Western south-central interior; +/- 72,789)
• Trarza: (1) Ould Daddah; (2) Ould Abdel Aziz is the closest challenger; “average” showing by other candidates. (South-western coastal; +/- 100,000)
• Ghorghoul: (1/2) Boulkheir and Ould Abdel Aziz in tight competition; (3/4) close race between Sarr Ibrahima Mokhtar Sarr and Ould Daddah. Projected to be close. (South-central interior; +/- 47,000 )
• Guidimagha: Ould Abdel Aziz. (Far south central interior; +/- 29,007)
• Tagant: (1/2) Boulkheir or Ould Abdel Aziz; (3) Ould Daddah. (Central interior; +/- 24,000)
• Adrar: (1) Ould Daddah; (2) Boulkheir; (3) Ould Abdel Aziz. (Central interior; +/- 22,000)
• Tiris al-Zemmour: (1) Ould Daddah; (2) Boulkheir; third place is not mentioned. (North-east interior; +/- 14,000)
• Nouadhibou: (1) Boulkheir; (2) Ould Daddah; (3) Ould Abdel Aziz and Vall in close competition. (Northwest coastal; +/- 31,200)
• Nouakchott: (1) Ould Daddah; (2) Boulkheir; (3) Ould Abdel Aziz; (4/5/6, etc.) toss up between various others, Vall, Sarr, Mansour, etc. (South-central coastal, surrounded by Trarza; +/- 180,000)